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zoom RSS CIA、トルコ、カタールのサウジ転覆計画を、MBS皇太子が阻止 カショギ切断殺害事件

<<   作成日時 : 2018/11/09 06:38   >>

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オーストラリアの元外相が、情報筋から仕入れた話として明かした。ムスリム同胞団のメンバーであるカショギ氏は、CIAの指示、カタールのカネで、サウジ国内に同胞団の思想を広める団体を、トルコに設立しようとしていた。同胞団を毛嫌いしているサウジのMBS皇太子は、カショギ氏に対し9月に900万ドルの提供を申し出たが、氏は拒否し、そして10月に殺害された。

簡単に言うと、サウジに内乱を起こそうとする米国の企画に対し、サウジMBS皇太子がカショギ氏殺害という形で回答した。MBS皇太子は、米国の作戦を阻止した。

トランプは、ディープ・ステートから相変わらず排除されているのか、脳天気なだけなのか、米国・サウジ関係に荒波を立ててはいけないというスタンスを取り続けている。

MBS皇太子が政策上の要となっているイスラエルも、サウジの内政混乱を望んでおらず、静かに事態が収束することをトランプ大統領に強く要望した。
(ネタンヤフの声は「天の声」いくつか:その1その2その3

今回オーストラリアからリークされた情報を、米英の情報機関が知らないはずがない。情報を事前に察知していた米英が、MBS皇太子の行為を指をくわえてみていたはずがないのである。

ということであれば、サウジ内乱を計画しているCIAが、カショギ氏が殺害されたくらいで作戦を諦めるとは考えにくい。サウジの内政混乱は続くであろう。

以下英文記事の1本目はインドのベテラン外交官による解説。2本目はラリア元外相執筆の投稿。

・・・ということですから、新中東地図に描かれた「サウジ分裂作戦」を、私たちはこれから目撃することになるようです。ワクワクしてきました。
関連記事

こういうのを見ると、2018年に安倍政権が安泰なのは、安倍さんが政治家として優秀だからとか、日本の官僚機構がしっかりしているからという理由ではなく、「単に米国が安部首相を暗殺しないから」というだけの理由であることが、よくわかります。



Saudi Regime Survives but Enters the Time of Troubles
Melkulangara BHADRAKUMAR | 06.11.2018
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2018/11/06/saudi-regime-survives-but-enters-time-troubles.html

In a sensational disclosure quoting “intelligence sources”, former Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer wrote in the Financial Review newspaper on Sunday that the Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi who was murdered on October 2 in Turkey was far from a “bleeding heart liberal” but was a seasoned intelligence agent and a sympathizer of the Muslim Brotherhood working on regime change in his country.

Downer wrote: “To add to the complexity of the story, the Brotherhood is supported by the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Qataris… So Jamal Khashoggi – a former Saudi intelligence agent, a man who was close to the Muslim Brotherhood and a sworn opponent of (Saudi Crown Prince) MBS' reform program – was in the process of setting up a centre to promote the ideology of the MB. He was setting it up in Turkey with Qatari money. The Saudis wanted to stop him. In September they offered him $9 million to return to Saudi Arabia and to live there unhindered. They wanted him out of play. Khashoggi refused and the rest you know. The Saudis killed him.”

What has been so far in the realm of intuitive deduction now becomes actual fact. Downer’s disclosure completely transforms the narrative about Khashoggi’s death and it is bound to be hugely consequential.

Assuming that Downer’s “intelligence sources” were Australian, it must be factored in that Australia is a member of the highly privileged 5-nation intelligence alliance, Five Eyes, alongside the US, Canada, UK and New Zealand. The Five Eyes agencies are obliged to share by default all intelligence, including raw intelligence (and even techniques related to the acquisition of such intelligence.)

Suffice to say, it’s out of the question that the intelligence on the Muslim Brotherhood project for regime change in Saudi Arabia involving Khashoggi, Turkey and Qatar was not available with the CIA and MI6 as well. Saudi Arabia is a key ally of the US and yet, are we to believe that the CIA and the MI6 simply sat on such sensitive intelligence?

That is to say, a tantalizing proposition pops up: The CIA and MI6 were covertly backing Khashoggi’s project to change the regime in Saudi Arabia.

Indeed, it is obvious that the American media commentators who are known to have close links with the US intelligence establishment went ballistic no sooner that it transpired by the evening of October 2 that Khashoggi who walked into the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul earlier in the day had failed to come out of the compound.

The hysteria whipped up over the incident right from Day 1 in such a sustained fashion is unprecedented. The Saudi prince Turki al-Faisal – son of a former king and cousin of the crown prince, a former Saudi intelligence chief and ambassador to both the US and Britain, as well as a once-close associate of Khashoggi’s – asked recently with indignation why there should have been such brouhaha at all.

Turki said with biting sarcasm that “people in glass houses should not cast stones. Countries that have tortured and incarcerated innocent people” and “launched a war that killed many thousands . . . based on fabricated information, should be humble in their regard to others,” he said, in a clear reference to US counterterrorism policy and the invasion of Iraq.

The bottom line is that the explosive anger and fury of the “Deep State” in America over the death of Khashoggi can only be understood with Downer’s intelligence input – namely, that Khashoggi was a priceless “asset” of the US intelligence establishment and the Saudis simply eliminated him.

Now, if the “Deep State” was promoting Khashoggi, President Donald Trump was either unaware of it or was deliberately kept in the dark. The point is, Trump seems to be in splendid isolation even today in his aversion to punishing the Saudi regime for Khashoggi’s murder.

Trump is openly evasive although Turkish President Erdogan even penned an op-Ed in the Washington Post newspaper in the weekend alleging that Saudi leadership “at the highest levels” was involved in Khashoggi’s murder.

Of course, this is not the first time in US political history that the “Deep State” would have acted behind the back of an incumbent president. But then, Trump is different from Dwight Eisenhower or John Kennedy. And he staunchly believes that nothing should be done to destabilize Saudi Arabia.

Under the circumstances, Downer’s intelligence input will work just fine for Trump if he wants to shake off the pressure from the “Deep State” which has been attempting to force his hands against the Saudi regime.

Coupled with the fact that Israeli lobby has also waded into the Khashoggi affair arguing against any US moves against the Israel-friendly Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the odds are heavily favoring Trump’s policy of “hear no evil, see no evil, speak no evil” against the Saudi regime.

However, the US intelligence establishment is smarting from the humiliation meted out by the Saudi regime and is unlikely to retreat in embarrassment. The high probability is that it will wage war by other means – until Islamic democracy prevails in Saudi Arbia.

Bruce Riedel, a Middle East expert at the Brookings Institution, who served for three decades in the CIA, told the New Yorker magazine last week: “There is no political way out (over Khashoggi affair), except through violence.” It is an ominous remark by an ace intelligence operative of yesteryears who knows Saudi Arabia like the back of his hand.

The New Yorker report by Dexter Filkins, a Pulitzer Prize winner and acclaimed author with long experience in reporting from the frontlines of Middle Eastern hotspots, concludes: “Even if—especially if—M.B.S. hangs on to his position, it seems likely that the Saudi royal family, and Saudi Arabia more generally, are entering a dangerous period.”



Jamal Khashoggi was a player, not a bleeding heart liberal: Alexander Downer
Opinion
Nov 4 2018 at 11:45 PM
Updated Nov 4 2018 at 11:45 PM
https://www.afr.com/opinion/columnists/jamal-khashoggi-was-a-player-not-a-bleeding-heart-liberal-alexander-downer-20181104-h17h9k

I was at a dinner last week with the new British Foreign Secretary, Jeremy Hunt. Hunt was telling us of his recent meeting with Henry Kissinger. He had asked that doyen of diplomacy what separated the good foreign ministers from the ordinary. "Good foreign ministers have an understanding of strategy," the great man growled. Indeed.

The temptation foreign ministers must avoid is to lose sight of strategy as they react to day to day events, often driven by the ephemeral excitement of the media. Well, the West's media is in overdrive over the murder by the Saudis of Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi Arabian consulate in Istanbul. There's a demand the West should turn its collective back on Saudi Arabia in response to this criminal act.

I'm not defending what the Saudis did. It was clearly unacceptable. Murder always is. But what is it about Saudi Arabia we have learned in the last month that we didn't already know? It's a tough autocracy, the home of Wahhabism, the hardline sect of Islam which harks back to the values and practices of the middle ages. Its political and economic system is run by an eye-wateringly rich royal family who spray their wealth around Mayfair and Fifth Avenue, if not entirely at home.

And Saudi Arabia is hardly a model of economic efficiency. It has the same population of Australia, produces about 12 per cent of the world's oil and has a GDP not much more than a third of Australia's.

My own experiences of Saudi Arabia have not been entirely happy. As foreign minister I expelled a senior Saudi diplomat because he had been allegedly imprisoning and raping his Filipina maid. The next time I visited Riyadh as foreign minister my reception was distinctly chilly. I sat in the hotel room for hours waiting for meetings which never happened. But I didn't ever publicise the expulsion of the Saudi diplomat because I knew two things. First, raping anyone was a serious criminal offence and since a diplomat couldn't be prosecuted I did the next best thing: expel him.
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But I also knew Saudi Arabia was strategically important. It was and still is a partner of convenience for the West. It's not about oil. The Saudis have to export oil to survive. And it's not about arms sales. It's about maintaining a power balance in the Middle East and in particular in the Persian Gulf.

There's no doubting the aggression and ambitions of the Iranian theocracy. They've been pushing their influence from Afghanistan to the Mediterranean. They fund and arm Hezbollah and Hamas, deeply divisive and confrontational organisations. They have actively supported the attempted Houthi takeover of Yemen and Iran is deeply engaged in cyberwarfare.

In this febrile environment, Saudi Arabia is the ally of the West. Abandoning the relationship with Saudi Arabia would further weaken the interests and influence of the Western powers in the Middle East. And if you think that doesn't matter you're quite wrong. The Middle East is volatile enough without adding to that volatility by creating new power vacuums.

So back to the tragic murder of Jamal Khashoggi. My intelligence sources tell me he had worked as an intelligence agent for the Saudi intelligence service, GID, for around 20 years. At one point he was sent by GID to Sudan to meet Osama bin Laden and to try to lure him away from terrorism. He failed.

Khashoggi had always been close to the Muslim Brotherhood, the people who took over Egypt under Morsi following the so-called Arab Spring. The Muslim Brotherhood is a hard-line Islamist organisation dedicated to the introduction of Sharia and the creation of an Islamic caliphate. These people are no bleeding heart liberals. Indeed, the Muslim Brotherhood has been outlawed as a terrorist organisation in a number of Middle Eastern countries and is part of the Hamas support group. They have been implacably opposed to many of the more liberal reforms of the Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman (MBS).

To add to the complexity of the story, the Brotherhood is supported by the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Qataris. This is a source of real tension between Saudi Arabia, Egypt and their regional allies on the one side and the Turks and Qataris on the other.

So Jamal Khashoggi – a former Saudi intelligence agent, a man who was close to the Muslim Brotherhood and a sworn opponent of MBS' reform program– was in the process of setting up a centre to promote the ideology of the MB. He was setting it up in Turkey with Qatari money. The Saudis wanted to stop him. In September they offered him $9 million to return to Saudi Arabia and to live there unhindered. They wanted him out of play. Khashoggi refused and the rest you know. The Saudis killed him.

Let me make two points. First, there is no justification for murdering Khashoggi. Secondly, this man wasn't some Western-oriented liberal brutally murdered because of his passion for freedom. This man was a player.

So it makes you wonder why the American press is so particularly outraged by Khashoggi's murder. Well, he was a columnist for the Washington Post and it's a standard bearer of American liberalism. But it's also been a great propaganda coup against Saudi Arabia in general. Many Westerners blame the Saudis for the tragedy of Yemen. More than that. President Trump has made a great play of embracing Saudi Arabia as America's ally – much more so than Obama who instead, against Saudi objections, did the nuclear deal with Iran. As for Erdogan, it's absolutely in his interests to milk the Khashoggi murder in Turkey for all it's worth. Erdogen wants Turkey to replace Saudi Arabia as the leader of the Islamic world.

You see my point. You can in government be swept up in the prevailing media narrative and if you design your foreign policy on that basis you will achieve nothing. The wise government is the government which has a clear strategic direction and manages ephemeral events often driven by others with ulterior motives.

Alexander Downer was foreign minister from 1996 to 2007 and is a former high commissioner to the UK.

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