シリア:クルド人の反政府デモ参加率 わずか0.3%
(1)面白いと思った情報は、シリア全体でのクルド人のデモ動員数を1万5千人から2万人と推計している点。これ、クルド筋の推計ですから。
2010年末のシリア総人口2300万人で、クルド人はそのうち16~30%と推計されているので、368万~690万人。デモ参加率は0.2~0.5%。クルド人の大半は政治に関心がない(笑)。
もちろん、貧しくてデモどころではない人が沢山いることを忘れてはならない。デモができる人は、生活に余裕がある。政治が混乱して困るのは、圧倒的多数の声なき人々、それも貧困層だ。声の大きい人に惑わされ、間違った政策を採用してはならない(くらいのことを、アサドも言えばいいのに)。
先に私が集計したシリア全体のデモ参加率は、集計のままで0.27%、動員数を意図的に5倍に膨らましても1.35%にしかならない。
私の集計結果0.27%と、クルドが語る0.2~0.5%はほぼ同じ数字だから、私の集計はきっと正しい。シリアの反政府デモ参加率は、全国平均0.3%でほぼ間違いなし。私が自信を持って少数派認定する。
(2)6月30日のAmudaアームーダーにおけるデモについて、治安部隊が催涙弾を発射するに至った経緯が書かれている。
Al-Qamishli: Demonstrations critical of the regime escalate in Kurdish regions
http://www.kurdwatch.org/index?aid=1750
KURDWATCH, July 4, 2011―During country-wide protests on the July 1, numerous people were injured and killed. The demonstrations in al-Qamishli, 'Amudah, Darbasiyah, Raʾs al-'Ayn (Serê Kaniyê), al‑Qahtaniyah (Tirbesipî), 'Afrin, 'Ayn al-'Arab (Kobanî), Ruknuddin (a neighborhood in Damascus predominantly inhabited by Kurds), and in Shaykh Magsud and al-Ashrafiyah (two predominantly Kurdish neighborhoods in Aleppo), proceeded largely peacefully. Throughout the country the demonstrators demanded a regime change. The number of demonstrators in the Kurdish areas was estimated at between 15,000 and 20,000. During the demonstration in 'Afrin Mahmud Ahmad, Shero Husayn, Husayn Ali Muhammad, Muslim Muhammad, Barkhwada Mustafa, Bangin Hasan, Muhammad 'Abdu Batal, and Husayn Shaykh Saydi were arrested by members of the security forces.
Already on July 30, 2011, a demonstration critical to the regime took place in al-Malikiyah (Dêrik). There was also a protest against the regime in 'Amuda on June 30, 2011. A pro-Assad demonstration planned by the government with supporters of the regime from other cities failed when the business people of 'Amuda closed their shops in protest and a counter-demonstration was organized in the city center. The security forces there used tear gas against the demonstrators. In the process, multiple participants were injured and had to be treated in the local hospital. A further rally critical of the regime took place in 'Amuda in the evening. Due to the incidents on June 30, the participation in the demonstration in 'Amuda on July 1, 2011 rose significantly compared to previous weeks.
2010年末のシリア総人口2300万人で、クルド人はそのうち16~30%と推計されているので、368万~690万人。デモ参加率は0.2~0.5%。クルド人の大半は政治に関心がない(笑)。
もちろん、貧しくてデモどころではない人が沢山いることを忘れてはならない。デモができる人は、生活に余裕がある。政治が混乱して困るのは、圧倒的多数の声なき人々、それも貧困層だ。声の大きい人に惑わされ、間違った政策を採用してはならない(くらいのことを、アサドも言えばいいのに)。
先に私が集計したシリア全体のデモ参加率は、集計のままで0.27%、動員数を意図的に5倍に膨らましても1.35%にしかならない。
私の集計結果0.27%と、クルドが語る0.2~0.5%はほぼ同じ数字だから、私の集計はきっと正しい。シリアの反政府デモ参加率は、全国平均0.3%でほぼ間違いなし。私が自信を持って少数派認定する。
(2)6月30日のAmudaアームーダーにおけるデモについて、治安部隊が催涙弾を発射するに至った経緯が書かれている。
Al-Qamishli: Demonstrations critical of the regime escalate in Kurdish regions
http://www.kurdwatch.org/index?aid=1750
KURDWATCH, July 4, 2011―During country-wide protests on the July 1, numerous people were injured and killed. The demonstrations in al-Qamishli, 'Amudah, Darbasiyah, Raʾs al-'Ayn (Serê Kaniyê), al‑Qahtaniyah (Tirbesipî), 'Afrin, 'Ayn al-'Arab (Kobanî), Ruknuddin (a neighborhood in Damascus predominantly inhabited by Kurds), and in Shaykh Magsud and al-Ashrafiyah (two predominantly Kurdish neighborhoods in Aleppo), proceeded largely peacefully. Throughout the country the demonstrators demanded a regime change. The number of demonstrators in the Kurdish areas was estimated at between 15,000 and 20,000. During the demonstration in 'Afrin Mahmud Ahmad, Shero Husayn, Husayn Ali Muhammad, Muslim Muhammad, Barkhwada Mustafa, Bangin Hasan, Muhammad 'Abdu Batal, and Husayn Shaykh Saydi were arrested by members of the security forces.
Already on July 30, 2011, a demonstration critical to the regime took place in al-Malikiyah (Dêrik). There was also a protest against the regime in 'Amuda on June 30, 2011. A pro-Assad demonstration planned by the government with supporters of the regime from other cities failed when the business people of 'Amuda closed their shops in protest and a counter-demonstration was organized in the city center. The security forces there used tear gas against the demonstrators. In the process, multiple participants were injured and had to be treated in the local hospital. A further rally critical of the regime took place in 'Amuda in the evening. Due to the incidents on June 30, the participation in the demonstration in 'Amuda on July 1, 2011 rose significantly compared to previous weeks.
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