東欧バブル崩壊後のオーストリアの銀行
Banking: Standing by for a long-awaited adjustment
By Chris Bryant and Neil Buckley
Published: October 21 2010 16:08 | Last updated: October 21 2010 16:08
Austrian banks are dusting themselves off after a volatile period but for many the hard work is not over and a period of consolidation awaits.
The country's leading institutions – Raiffeisen International, Erste Group and Bank Austria (owned by Italy's UniCredit) – remained profitable throughout the crisis, in spite of fears that their exposure to central and eastern Europe could prove their undoing.
The same could not be said of Hypo Group Alpe Adria, which had to be nationalised in December after running up big losses in the Balkans. But its problems were largely specific to the bank and its management and not considered endemic to the industry as a whole.
Today's banking environment, however, is very different from the heady years that preceded the crisis, when Austrian banks rushed to buy assets and open branches across central and eastern Europe. The double-digit growth rates they once enjoyed are unlikely to return, even as most of the economies in emerging Europe pull out of recession.
Instead, the future could well be less profitable and will certainly be more tightly regulated. The outlook for the region is highly heterogeneous and banks' fortunes may fluctuate according to exposure to particular markets.
Some countries in central Europe, for example, have received a boost from renewed German demand for their exports. But in Hungary, Romania and parts of the western Balkans, the outlook is less rosy due to a mix of political uncertainty and painful austerity.
"You can't talk about 'eastern Europe'. There's a huge difference between Poland and Romania or between the Czech Republic and Hungary," Andreas Treichl, chief executive of Erste Group, told the FT's View from the Top series.
In many of these markets, banks must still contend with growing portfolios of non-performing loans, requiring them to make large provisions to cover potential losses that can only partly be offset by interest and trading income.
The pre-crisis fad of issuing loans in foreign currency – once wildly popular with consumers because of their comparatively low interest rates – has since turned into a liability for banks as the weakening of domestic currencies made repayment more expensive and caused some borrowers to default. Lending in Swiss francs has all but disappeared, with some governments moving to ban or restrict these loans.
Hungary's new government shocked industry participants in June by unveiling a Ft200bn ($990m) annual levy on the financial sector. So far, at least, fears that other cash-strapped governments in the region might follow suit have proven unfounded. "The Hungarian bank tax is hurting the whole industry terrifically," says Herbert Stepic, chief executive of Raiffeisen. "The tax is simply being used to fill short-term budgetary holes and that should never be the goal of a bank tax."
Austria's government is likely to impose its own €500m ($690m) bank levy but, compared with the size of taxable assets, this is much more digestible and officials say its design will avoid double taxation.
These challenges come at a time when banks are being urged to lend more to support the recovery and as regulators demand that they hold more capital. New Basel III capital and liquidity rules will place additional demands on banks, although Austrian institutions insist they already meet the requirements.
Markets were reassured this summer when the big three banks comfortably passed European-wide stress tests, even though the national bank imposed a tougher set of stress assumptions than required. Nevertheless, analysts expect most institutions to raise capital over the coming years, not least because they must one day repay capital received from the Austrian state during the crisis.
The combination of all these new burdens could accelerate the long-awaited consolidation of the country's "overbanked" market. Raiffeisen this month completed a merger with RZB, its unlisted Austrian commercial banking parent, bringing to an end a five-year period as a purely eastern Europe-focused retail lender. Management explained that the merger would help the bank gain access to both debt and equity markets, while enabling the retail operations to promote more sophisticated products
After Österreichische Volksbanken, Austria's fourth-biggest lender, incurred a €1.1bn loss in 2009 as a result of huge risk provisions and impairments on real estate, it began the search for a strategic partner. But talks with rival Bawag collapsed in May, leaving its future direction uncertain. Bawag, owned by US investor Cerberus Capital Management, has returned to profit after taking steps last year to sell a problematic credit portfolio.
However, with a focus almost exclusively on the Austrian market – it is required to sell a 10 per cent stake in Hungary's MKB to comply with EU state aid rules – opportunities for growth are limited. "It doesn't seem very exciting but we are not an investment bank we are a traditional retail and commercial bank," says Byron Haynes, chief executive.
In spite of the tougher conditions, Austrian banks operating in eastern Europe say they remain committed to the region in the belief that the east's battle to catch up with living standards in western Europe has been delayed, not cancelled. Indeed, Unicredit's decision to appoint Federico Ghizzoni as its new chief executive was seen as a signal that it remained committed to its eastern European operations.
Following his appointment, Mr Ghizzoni – until recently the head of the group's emerging Europe operations – said that moving the CEE headquarters from Vienna was "not on the agenda".
By Chris Bryant and Neil Buckley
Published: October 21 2010 16:08 | Last updated: October 21 2010 16:08
Austrian banks are dusting themselves off after a volatile period but for many the hard work is not over and a period of consolidation awaits.
The country's leading institutions – Raiffeisen International, Erste Group and Bank Austria (owned by Italy's UniCredit) – remained profitable throughout the crisis, in spite of fears that their exposure to central and eastern Europe could prove their undoing.
The same could not be said of Hypo Group Alpe Adria, which had to be nationalised in December after running up big losses in the Balkans. But its problems were largely specific to the bank and its management and not considered endemic to the industry as a whole.
Today's banking environment, however, is very different from the heady years that preceded the crisis, when Austrian banks rushed to buy assets and open branches across central and eastern Europe. The double-digit growth rates they once enjoyed are unlikely to return, even as most of the economies in emerging Europe pull out of recession.
Instead, the future could well be less profitable and will certainly be more tightly regulated. The outlook for the region is highly heterogeneous and banks' fortunes may fluctuate according to exposure to particular markets.
Some countries in central Europe, for example, have received a boost from renewed German demand for their exports. But in Hungary, Romania and parts of the western Balkans, the outlook is less rosy due to a mix of political uncertainty and painful austerity.
"You can't talk about 'eastern Europe'. There's a huge difference between Poland and Romania or between the Czech Republic and Hungary," Andreas Treichl, chief executive of Erste Group, told the FT's View from the Top series.
In many of these markets, banks must still contend with growing portfolios of non-performing loans, requiring them to make large provisions to cover potential losses that can only partly be offset by interest and trading income.
The pre-crisis fad of issuing loans in foreign currency – once wildly popular with consumers because of their comparatively low interest rates – has since turned into a liability for banks as the weakening of domestic currencies made repayment more expensive and caused some borrowers to default. Lending in Swiss francs has all but disappeared, with some governments moving to ban or restrict these loans.
Hungary's new government shocked industry participants in June by unveiling a Ft200bn ($990m) annual levy on the financial sector. So far, at least, fears that other cash-strapped governments in the region might follow suit have proven unfounded. "The Hungarian bank tax is hurting the whole industry terrifically," says Herbert Stepic, chief executive of Raiffeisen. "The tax is simply being used to fill short-term budgetary holes and that should never be the goal of a bank tax."
Austria's government is likely to impose its own €500m ($690m) bank levy but, compared with the size of taxable assets, this is much more digestible and officials say its design will avoid double taxation.
These challenges come at a time when banks are being urged to lend more to support the recovery and as regulators demand that they hold more capital. New Basel III capital and liquidity rules will place additional demands on banks, although Austrian institutions insist they already meet the requirements.
Markets were reassured this summer when the big three banks comfortably passed European-wide stress tests, even though the national bank imposed a tougher set of stress assumptions than required. Nevertheless, analysts expect most institutions to raise capital over the coming years, not least because they must one day repay capital received from the Austrian state during the crisis.
The combination of all these new burdens could accelerate the long-awaited consolidation of the country's "overbanked" market. Raiffeisen this month completed a merger with RZB, its unlisted Austrian commercial banking parent, bringing to an end a five-year period as a purely eastern Europe-focused retail lender. Management explained that the merger would help the bank gain access to both debt and equity markets, while enabling the retail operations to promote more sophisticated products
After Österreichische Volksbanken, Austria's fourth-biggest lender, incurred a €1.1bn loss in 2009 as a result of huge risk provisions and impairments on real estate, it began the search for a strategic partner. But talks with rival Bawag collapsed in May, leaving its future direction uncertain. Bawag, owned by US investor Cerberus Capital Management, has returned to profit after taking steps last year to sell a problematic credit portfolio.
However, with a focus almost exclusively on the Austrian market – it is required to sell a 10 per cent stake in Hungary's MKB to comply with EU state aid rules – opportunities for growth are limited. "It doesn't seem very exciting but we are not an investment bank we are a traditional retail and commercial bank," says Byron Haynes, chief executive.
In spite of the tougher conditions, Austrian banks operating in eastern Europe say they remain committed to the region in the belief that the east's battle to catch up with living standards in western Europe has been delayed, not cancelled. Indeed, Unicredit's decision to appoint Federico Ghizzoni as its new chief executive was seen as a signal that it remained committed to its eastern European operations.
Following his appointment, Mr Ghizzoni – until recently the head of the group's emerging Europe operations – said that moving the CEE headquarters from Vienna was "not on the agenda".
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