トルコ・UAE和解 トルコがすべきこと

The Geopolitical Game That Could Transform Gas Markets
By Cyril Widdershoven - Nov 28, 2021
https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/The-Geopolitical-Game-That-Could-Transform-Gas-Markets.html

(前略)
For the EMGF members, especially Egypt, Israel, and Cyprus, the more direct and active involvement of Abu Dhabi in Turkey’s affairs is a potential advantage. The financial power of Emirati investment funds should not be underestimated, especially not in time of a financial market implosion as we are seeing in Ankara. All this could force Erdogan to take a less adversarial stance towards offshore East Mediterranean gas exploration. For both sides, it could be a real win-win situation. Part of the East Med offshore gas and LNG options have hit a brick wall, due to the energy transition and geopolitics. By taking out political risks, or mitigating a potential Greek-Egyptian confrontation with Turkey, investors and operators could be incentivized to return. For Ankara and EMGF this could even result in a future where Turkey becomes a prime market for LNG from the region.

Due to the Turkish military and political intervention, especially linked to the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, any energy relation between the countries was put on ice. Some analysts believe that MBZ and Erdogan have discussed the Muslim Brotherhood’s futures in recent days and that economics could persuade him to change his stance, Egypt and potentially even Israel could then follow MBZ in reengaging with Turkey. At the same time, the ongoing European Energy Crunch has opened up new LNG and pipeline gas markets, so Turkey really is just the cherry on the cake.

The first steps have been made by MBZ, but everything depends on Erdogan’s backers. Erdogan will have to remove support for Muslim Brotherhood parties in the region, soften up to Assad’s Syria, decrease Turkish military support for Qatar, and leave Libya’s future to the Libyans before a full-scale rapprochement can take place. One thing is clear, however, geoeconomics is becoming an increasingly important factor in the region.

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