・・・異端派の見解がイギリス保守層の代表紙The Daily Telegraphで紹介されるというのは、どのような変化なのでしょうか。
Exclusive: Covid-19 may not have originated in China, Oxford University expert believes
Senior CEBM tutor Dr Tom Jefferson believes many viruses lie dormant throughout the globe and emerge when conditions are favourable
By Sarah Knapton, Science Editor 5 July 2020 • 4:41pmhttps://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/05/covid-19-may-not-have-originated-china-elsewhere-emerged-asia/
Coronavirus may have lain dormant across the world and emerged when the environmental conditions were right for it to thrive rather than starting in China, an Oxford University expert believes.
Dr Tom Jefferson, senior associate tutor at the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine (CEBM), at Oxford and a visiting professor at Newcastle University, argues there is growing evidence that the virus was elsewhere before it emerged in Asia.
Last week, Spanish virologists announced that they had found traces of the disease in samples of waste water collected in March 2019, nine months before coronavirus was seen in China.
Italian scientists have also found evidence of coronavirus in sewage samples in Milan and Turin in mid-December, many weeks before the first case was detected, while experts have found evidence of traces in Brazil in November.
Dr Jefferson believes many viruses lie dormant throughout the globe and emerge when conditions are favourable, which also means they can vanish as quickly as they arrive.
"Where did Sars 1 go? It's just disappeared," he said. "So we have to think about these things. We need to start researching the ecology of the virus, understanding how it originates and mutates.
"I think the virus was already here – here meaning everywhere. We may be seeing a dormant virus that has been activated by environmental conditions.
"There was a case in the Falkland Islands in early February. Now where did that come from? There was a cruise ship that went from South Georgia to Buenos Aires, and the passengers were screened and then on day eight, when they started sailing towards the Weddell Sea, they got the first case. Was it in prepared food that was defrosted and activated?
"Strange things like this happened with Spanish Flu. In 1918, around 30 per cent of the population of Western Samoa died of Spanish Flu, and they hadn't had any communication with the outside world.
"The explanation for this could only be that these agents don't come or go anywhere. They are always here and something ignites them, maybe human density or environmental conditions, and this is what we should be looking for."
Dr Jefferson believes the virus may be transmitted through the sewage system or shared toilet facilities, not just through droplets expelled by talking, coughing and sneezing.
Writing in The Telegraph, Dr Jefferson and Professor Carl Henegehan, director of the CEBM, call for an in-depth investigation similar to that carried out by John Snow in 1854 to show that cholera was spreading in London from an infected well in Soho.
Exploring why so many outbreaks happen at food factories and meat-packing plants could uncover major new transmission routes, they believe. It may be shared toilet facilities, coupled with cool conditions, that allow the virus to thrive.
"We're doing a living review, extracting environmental conditions, the ecology of these viruses which has been grossly understudied," said Dr Jefferson.
"There is quite a lot of evidence that huge amounts of the virus were in sewage all over the place, and an increasing amount of evidence there is faecal transmission. There is a high concentration where sewage is four degrees, which is the ideal temperature for it to be stabled and presumably activated. And meat-packing plants are often at four degrees.
"These meat-packing clusters and isolated outbreaks don't fit with respiratory theory, they fit with people who haven't washed their hands properly.
"These outbreaks need to be investigated properly with people on the ground one by one. You need to do what John Snow did. You question people and you start constructing hypotheses that fit the facts, not the other way around."
Plot twist! The coronavirus is NOT CHINESE, says famed British epidemiologist… but his reputation precedes him
7 Jul, 2020 11:52 https://www.rt.com/op-ed/494025-covid-19-not-chinese-theory/
By Peter Andrews, Irish science journalist and writer based in London. He has a background in the life sciences, and graduated from the University of Glasgow with a degree in genetics.
One of the world’s leading epidemiologists thinks the coronavirus may not actually have originated in China, with samples of Covid-19 surfacing from Spain in early 2019. The coronavirus story keeps getting stranger…
Dr Tom Jefferson is a British epidemiologist working for the Cochrane Collaboration's acute respiratory infections group. He also works at the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine (CEBM) at Oxford University. In an interview with the Telegraph that is already sending shockwaves through the scientific community, he has promoted an alternative view of the coronavirus’ origins. Jefferson believes that the virus lay dormant, possibly for years, before bursting into action late last year.
He points to a growing body of evidence involving traces of coronavirus turning up in sewage samples, from Europe to South America. The amazing thing about these samples is that they appear to pre-date the first instances of Covid-19 in Wuhan, the Chinese city of its purported origin.
An Italian study found traces of Covid-19 in sewage samples in Turin in December of last year. A similar study from Brazil also found samples dating back to November. And one study, yet to undergo peer review, found the virus in Barcelona on the March 12, 2019. Could the astonishing truth of Covid-19 be that it is not Chinese at all, but rather a second Spanish flu?
Of course, the Spanish flu of 1918 may not have been Spanish at all – America and China are also cited as possible origins. And Jefferson seems to hold some unusual ideas about that pandemic, which was much worse than the present one. Is he right? For now, it is too early to tell. But perhaps looking into Jefferson’s track record may shed some light on these exciting developments.
Not his first rodeo
Jefferson is no stranger to controversy: he is one of the foremost dissenters from the scientific mainstream on the subject of flu vaccines. Jefferson believes that the data used in many major clinical trials for such vaccines is dubious. For this, he has been ostracised by many quarters of academia.
A 2009 article in the Atlantic called Jefferson “The most vocal – and undoubtedly most vexing – critic of the gospel of flu vaccine.” At scientific conferences, the other scientists do not sit with him at lunch, forcing him to eat alone – an act too juvenile for any place but a primary school or a university campus.
Interestingly, many of the opinions which Jefferson holds on flu research, which have made him a pariah, have also been expressed by some concerned with the much newer research on SARS-CoV-2. For instance, he questions whether deaths supposedly caused by flu are really always justified: “When an old person dies of respiratory failure after an influenza-like illness, they nearly always get coded as influenza.”
Moreover, he questions the use in administering flu vaccines to young, healthy people, who practically never die of flu. So is Jefferson a crackpot who other scientists are right to shun? Or an outspoken genius who has unearthed a radical piece of the coronavirus puzzle?
One thing is certain: Dr Jefferson thinks for himself, and does not simply parrot what the scientific establishment or the wider media deem are acceptable opinions. Being a scientist is all about asking questions, taking nothing for granted and challenging conventional wisdom relentlessly and without qualm. All of these principles serve to strengthen science, not weaken it, as many tenured academics who have forgotten their basic responsibilities seem to think.
I would certainly be interested in hearing more of his opinions… especially as the efforts to create a vaccine for Covid-19 come closer to fruition.