天然ガスに賭けたイスラエルの経済発展がコロナ不況で頓挫したかも

ハアレツ紙寄稿を大胆に意訳。イスラエル沖に海底ガス田が発見され、過去にはイスラエルと組むことなど考えられなかった近隣諸国との間に東地中海ガス・フォーラムを結成し、エジプト経由で大消費地であるEUに天然ガスを輸出し、イスラエルの念願だった確固たる外貨収入源を確立する。少し前までこんなことを思い描いていた。

高品質低価格のロシア産天然ガスをEUから締め出することで作った隙間に、低品質高価格の米国産とイスラエル産のガスをねじ込む予定だった。

ところが、予期せずして始まった新型コロナ騒ぎで世界経済が止まってしまい、突如ガス需要は世界全体で消失し、回復する見通しが立たなくなった。化石燃料批判は高まっており、石炭は市場から退場することがほぼ決まっている。石油の将来も短い。ガスは、石炭、石油よりクリーンなので、もう少し使われるが、やはり将来は暗い。

イスラエル産ガスの仕向先は、現時点では国内消費が大半であるのと、ごく少量を小さな隣国ヨルダンに輸出している。イスラエルは、高価格の国内産ガスを使うことで、国内産業の国際競争力を下げている。ヨルダンでは、もともと政治的にイスラエル産ガスを使うことに根強い反対論がある上、景気が悪いこともあり、低品質高価格イスラエル産の輸入を止め、高品質低価格カタール産に乗り換える動きがある。

深刻なガス不況を受け、キプロスでは海外企業が海底探査から手を引いてしまった。せっかく作ったガス・フォーラムは開店休業状態だ。

イスラエルは、天然ガスに賭けた経済発展を夢見たが、EUにまとまった量を輸出しない限り、得られる外貨はゼロだ。夢の計画は、始動しないまま終わってしまうかもしれない。

・・・本当にご愁傷様でした。



Opinion
Israel's Gas Party Ends Before It Began
Prices for natural gas have crashed, which is a much bigger problem for the Eastern Mediterranean than the coronavirus
David Rosenberg
Published on 26.05.2020
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/business/.premium-israel-s-gas-party-ends-before-it-began-1.8874678

Less than 18 months ago, it looked like the Eastern Mediterranean was on its way to becoming the natural gas equivalent of the Persian Gulf oil empire. Alright, that’s an exaggeration, but there was every sign that many of the region’s countries, including Israel, were ready to cooperate in turning the region into a global energy hub.

Egypt had begun production at its giant Zohr field and Israel’s somewhat smaller Leviathan was gearing up to begin pumping, too. Exploration was underway in Cypriot waters, and plans were afoot to ship Israeli and Cypriot gas to Egypt for re-export to Europe. There were even serious efforts underway to build a pipeline from Egypt to Europe.

In a rare case of the region putting aside their political disagreements, six countries – Cyprus, Greece, Israel, Italy, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority – formed an Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum to organize the emerging hub. Turkey refused to join the party, making ridiculously outsized claims about its exploration rights and harassing Cyprus’ drilling efforts.

Eighteen months later about the only thing that hasn’t changed is Turkey’s bloody-mindedness: Against all economic logic, it’s continuing to drill in waters claimed by Cyprus. But virtually everywhere else in the Eastern Mediterranean the gas business has ground to a halt because global gas prices have collapsed in tandem with the more infamous drop in oil prices.

On the Dutch TTF hub, a European benchmark, natural gas for June delivery last week traded at 3.50 euros per megawatt hour, its lowest since 2005. Many in the industry fret that European gas could soon be selling for less than zero, just as oil did in the United States last month.

The coronavirus is only part of the problem. Months before it began to wreak havoc across the world’s economies and slash energy demand, prices had been falling sharply because of the simple reason that a gas glut has been created.

The Eastern Mediterranean isn’t the only place where newly found reserves have been exploited. New gas was being produced everywhere, most notably in the United States – a side effect of the U.S. shale oil boom. There was too much gas on the supply side and then the coronavirus came and killed the demand side.

Amid U.S. Pressure, Chinese Firm Loses Tender for Israeli Plant in Sensitive Location
Delek Wins Reprieve From Bondholders, but Risks Lie Ahead for Controlling Shareholder
Israeli Economy Contracts at a 7% Annual Rate in First Quarter Amid Coronavirus Crisis

In Europe, tankers carrying liquefied natural gas are lying idle off the coast of Europe. Storage tanks are close to capacity but big producers, like Qatar, are still pumping the stuff because it’s not so easy to shut down production. By July, there may be no room left to store all the excess gas.

The target market vaporizes

This is a serious problem for the Eastern Mediterranean. Even the region’s biggest local markets – Egypt and Israel – can’t absorb all the gas that’s being produced or slated for production. Europe is supposed to be the big market for Eastern Mediterranean gas

Egypt has ceased exporting LNG since March and has idled its single plant. In Cyprus, ExxonMobil and a partnership between ENI and Total have put off conducting any more exploratory drilling. Noble Energy and Israel’s Delek Group, the partners in Cyprus’ Aphrodite field, may have to delay plans to build a pipeline to Egypt, whence the gas was supposed to be sent on to Europe as LNG.

So far, Israel has been spared the impact of the glut because most of its gas is sold at home and the domestic market is delinked from global market trends by contracts set at high prices. (The problems at Delek Group, one of the two main partners in the Tamar and Leviathan fields, are due to its foreign oil assets, not its local gas ones.) But the Israeli gas market is saturated. Its future lies in exports, and the future looks bleak.

Israel’s big export success to date is the deal signed last year to sell gas to Egypt’s Dolphinus. Egypt has plenty of its own gas, so the Israeli gas is supposed to be re-exported to Europe as LNG processed at Egyptian plants. But prices are now too low to justify doing that and, in any case, no one in Europe wants it. Dolphinus is supposed to take even more Israeli gas starting in July, but it’s hard to imagine why it would want to.

Jordan, a much smaller Israeli export customer, may also decide that Israeli gas is too expensive (and with annexation carries too big a political price) and opt for cheaper LNG from Qatar.

The fact that the European market is all but dead for now is a comparatively little problem for Israel. The big problem is that it may never come back to life. Prices may recover, but the halt in Eastern Mediterranean development means there won’t be much gas to sell Europe for years to come.

In the longer run, Europe and the rest of the world seem destined to move on to alternative energy in place of fossil fuels. Coal is already on the way out and the oil outlook is dim. Gas may hold out a little longer because it is cleaner than the other two, but that’s not the kind of future to inspire energy companies to spend billions on exploration and development. The Eastern Mediterranean gas party may have ended before it began.

ミネアポリス黒人暴動を武力弾圧するトランプは、G7で中国に対して説教するつもりか(笑)

ミネソタ州ミネアポリスの警察第3管区の署建物がデモ隊に襲撃され、警察官が退却。建物まるごと炎上した。
CNN様の証拠映像。
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=505lAvIGCj0



以下のリンク先に動画多数あり。
WATCH Minneapolis police ABANDON 3rd precinct as protesters TORCH it & celebrate
29 May, 2020 04:02
https://www.rt.com/usa/490069-minneapolis-3rd-precinct-abandoned-torched/

A police headquarters in Minneapolis is engulfed in flames after protesters breached the building and set it ablaze amid riots over a recent police killing. Officers fled the scene, having lost all control of the situation.

Less than an hour after the break-in at the 3rd police precinct late on Thursday night, flames had spread to nearly the whole building, with a crowd of demonstrators gathered outside celebrating as police staged a retreat. RT’s Sophia Narwitz reported live from the main protest area.



以下のリンク先に動画多数あり。
Minneapolis ‘WAR ZONE’: Rioters take over POLICE STATION amid clashes, fires & tear gas (VIDEOS)
29 May, 2020 03:15
https://www.rt.com/usa/490068-minnesota-war-zone-protests/



ミネアポリス上空の大気汚染状況(笑)
https://mobile.twitter.com/KansasZoomer/status/1265995592897122308/photo/1
警察第3管区署は、濃い色2地点の中間の右方向。



黒人容疑者死亡でデモ拡大、ミネソタが州兵を動員
5/29(金) 15:36配信
ロイター
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/6fc662f84c62922fd01bf321e78312100d3bc732

 5月28日、米中西部ミネソタ州・ミネアポリス近郊で黒人容疑者が逮捕時に白人警官から首に体重をかけられ死亡した事件で、地元で抗議による暴動が2日続き、同州のティム・ウォルツ知事は、警察を助けるため州兵を動員した。27日撮影(2020年 ロイター/Eric Miller)

[米ミネアポリス 28日 ロイター] - 米中西部ミネソタ州・ミネアポリス近郊で黒人容疑者が逮捕時に白人警官から首に体重をかけられ死亡した事件で、地元で抗議による暴動が2日続き、同州のティム・ウォルツ知事は28日、警察を助けるため州兵を動員した。

・・・えっと私が中東方面で米国の言葉として聞いたのは、「正義と民主主義を求める無実の国民を虐殺し、それに抗議する国民を武力で弾圧するのは残虐な独裁者で、そのような輩は外部から軍隊を派遣してでもとっ捕まえ、国際司法裁判所で裁かなければならない」というものでした(笑)。「国を民族・文化ごとに細分化し、中央集権型支配を改め、それぞれ独立性の高い自治区とする」というのもありました(爆)。関連記事



トランプ大統領が、「ミネソタの凶悪犯たちが・・・秩序が回復しないならば・・・軍を投入する」とツイッターに投稿したところ、ツイッター社が「暴力を賛美している」と評価し、トランプに要注意マークを付けた(笑)。

Twitter at war? Trump's warning to Minnesota ‘thugs’ flagged for ‘glorifying violence’
29 May, 2020 08:11
https://www.rt.com/usa/490085-twitter-violence-trump-rule-violation/

Twitter has claimed Donald Trump violated its rules by vowing a tough response to rioting in Minnesota. The social media platform flagged the tweet, saying it “glorified violence.”

The US president tweeted that he would take action if order was not restored to Minneapolis.

“We will assume control but, when the looting starts, the shooting starts,” Trump wrote, noting that the military could get involved.

Hours later, Twitter attached a notice to the post, stating that the tweet “violated the Twitter Rules about glorifying violence.” The company said it would allow the message to stay up, however, because it “may be in the public’s interest.”

On Thursday, Trump signed an executive order aimed at social media platforms in an effort to crack down on alleged political bias and strip them of protection from litigation. The move came after Twitter “fact checked” one of his tweets about how vote-by-mail would lead to widespread fraud. Trump then claimed that the platform was trying to stifle free speech, with even some media outlets arguing that Twitter had overstepped its bounds. The company denounced the executive order as “a reactionary and politicized approach to a landmark law” protecting platforms from legal liability for content.

(別記事)
Twitter blocks WHITE HOUSE tweet for ‘glorifying violence’ after it reposts Trump warning from official government account
29 May, 2020 14:17
https://www.rt.com/usa/490136-twitter-censors-white-house-trump/



ミネアポリス市警察長が、暴動は地元民ではない人々によって扇動されていると指摘。これを受け、保守派の活動家が、ジョージ・ソロスが黒人の暴徒にカネを配っていると非難。

ソロスが運営しているOpen Society Foundationは、Black Lives Matter運動に拠出している事実はあるものの、批判に対し、財団はあらゆる暴力を容認しておらず、抗議者に資金提供していない、警察の残虐性から目をそらす目的の批判と反論。

‘Don’t throw money at black Americans to riot’: Candace Owens spars with Soros-funded NGO over alleged hand in Minneapolis unrest
29 May, 2020 08:57
https://www.rt.com/usa/490081-candace-owens-soros-minneapolis-riots/

Conservative firebrand Candace Owens has started a feud with Open Society Foundations, after accusing the George Soros-funded NGO of fueling the ongoing riots in Minneapolis.

Owens speculated that the fires and looting in Minneapolis was being carried out by activists linked to the billionaire, after noting that Police Chief Medaria Arradondo claimed the criminal activity was being instigated by people not native to the city.

“My guess: As he did with Antifa, Democrat George Soros has these thugs on payroll. He is funding the chaos via his Open Society Foundation,” the conservative commentator tweeted.

The accusation clearly ruffled the NGO’s feathers, which fired back a retort insisting that they do not condone violence and “do not pay people to protest.” They also claimed that Owens was trying to “distract” from a case of “police brutality.”

Hi Candace, Mr. Soros and the Open Society Foundations oppose all violence and do not pay people to protest. We lament the effort, through baseless allegations, to distract from the crisis of police brutality in Minneapolis and in too many other parts of the country.
— Open Society Foundations (@OpenSociety) May 28, 2020

Unimpressed, Owens accused the group of “throwing money at black Americans to riot” and scolded the organization for spreading hate and dividing America.

“You got what you wanted in Minnesota. Your organization is a disgrace and Soros himself is absolute filth in my book,” read one of her scathing responses.

Please do not throw money at black Americans to riot and then have the nerve to think we are so stupid as to believe the money was given out of genuine caring.You got what you wanted in Minnesota. Your organization is a disgrace and Soros himself is absolute filth in my book.
— Candace Owens (@RealCandaceO) May 28, 2020

Soros’ Open Society Foundations has indeed provided cash to activists linked with the Black Lives Matter movement – although the organization has long maintained that they “don’t fund protests, per se.”

Protests erupted in Minneapolis after a brutal police arrest reportedly led to the death of an unarmed black man, George Floyd. Although initial demonstrations were largely peaceful, Minneapolis has seen two nights of rioting. During a press conference on Thursday, the city’s police chief said that “many of the people involved in the criminal conduct last night were not known Minneapolitans to them” and were “not recognized as being from the city.”

A police precinct headquarters was set ablaze on Thursday night, after law enforcement abandoned their position. The Minnesota National Guard has been deployed to the area, purportedly to assist the city’s fire department as they battle fires set by rioters. US President Donald Trump has warned that he could send in the military if order is not restored.

・・・よくわからないけど、2人でやりあってください(笑)。



・・・G7議長の足下がこんな状態なのに、何の恥じらいもなく米国でG7を開き、中国の「いわゆる少数民族弾圧」を批判する宣言を高らかに発表しても、全然説得力がありません。面の皮が厚いと、何でもできていいね(笑)。誰か進言してあげて(爆)。

絵で見てわかる「新しい生活様式」 イギリス版 コロナ

家での過ごし方
(友人を室内に招いてははいけません。
6人までなら庭で飲食していいが、間隔を2メートル開けなさい)
28953638-8367943-image-a-2_1590713184638.jpg
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8367943/You-grandparents-Boris-Johnson-tells-Britons-announces-lockdown-relaxation-rules.html

美容院はこう変わる
(呼ばれるまで外でお待ち下さい。
接触を避けるため飲み物は提供されません。)
28947572-8367281-image-m-33_1590699547749.jpg
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-8367281/Salons-getting-set-reopen-theyre-cutting-little-luxuries-writes-JAN-MOIR.html

人口の圧倒的大多数には関係ない病気なのに、いつまでこんな馬鹿げたことを続けるんですか?

トランプ中東和平案に対するイスラエル国内の賛否 西岸併合

トランプのDeal of the Centuryを進めると、イスラエルがこれまで苦労して築き上げてきた近隣アラブ諸国との友好関係が崩れる恐れがある。

米国内ではトランプが特別に親イスラエルなだけで、民主党は西岸併合に対して厳しい。米国の景気が悪いと現職大統領が負ける可能性があるので、トランプだけに頼る外交は危うい。最近では右派の論客Daniel Pipesまでもが構想に批判的である。イスラエルにとり害が大きく、益が少ないのではないか。

イスラエルは過去一貫してパレスチナ国独立のシナリオを排除してきたが、トランプ案はパレスチナ国の独立を前提としている。イスラエルの国土に対する主権が認められるメリットがあるが、同時にパレスチナ国が独立してしまう。これは罠だ。

Trump's Mideast peace plan is a trap
Opinion: The Trump administration starts questioning whether its support for Netanyahu's annexation ambitions do more harm than good; Israeli right slowly realizes that annexation also means a Palestinian state
Yossi Shain |
Published: 05.27.20 , 21:27
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/SkWH3ZnjU



西岸併合後はパレスチナ人の蜂起が激化するので、IDFが疲れる。コロナ騒ぎが収まり、パレスチナ人が以前のようにイスラエル本土で仕事できるようになれば、暴動に参加するパレスチナ人の人口を減らすことができるかもしれない。

IDF is bracing for violence after West Bank annexation
Opinion: It is a mistake to believe that the Palestinian population is indifferent to Israel's looming plans for swathes of the territory and the military is preparing for different levels of conflict, from another civil uprising (intifada) or all-out war
Alex Fishman |
Published: 05.27.20 , 23:30
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/Bk00Dx0ojU

・・・知らんがな。後半の理屈は、あまりに打算的、表面的で呆れるわ。ユダヤ人が、人権重視、法の前の平等、差別反対という理念を完全排除して考えている醜さが、露骨に言葉に表れている。



トランプ案を受け入れると、西岸面積に対するイスラエルの管轄権の割合は小さくなってしまうが、小さくなった面積内に対する主権は承認されることになるので、面積内でイスラエル法の支配を確立することが肝要だ。

Israel must be smart about West Bank annexation
Opinion: Trump's plan is good for Israel, but is worthless unless the government actually applies rule of law in the territory; while it is impossible to do so across entire area, it must happen in Jordan Valley at very least
Kobi Eliraz |
Published: 05.28.20 , 23:30
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/B1jZMfTjL



イスラエルが併合した西岸領域内にパレスチナ人コミュニティーが1つ2つ残るが、彼らはイスラエル国の国民ではなく、その地域内では軍政が続く。

Netanyahu: Palestinians in Jordan Valley won't be citizens
In an interview with the Israel Hayom newspaper, PM said Palestinians in the Jordan Valley, including residents of the city of Jericho, would remain under limited Palestinian self-rule, with Israel having security control
Associated Press |
Published: 05.28.20 , 18:33
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/HkM7PLajU

・・・この理屈、日本でも適用できる地区がありそうな気がするのは私だけ?イスラエルだけ、こういうことしていいのはなぜ?どうして?



在エルサレム米国大使館は、米国民に対し、パレスチナ人居住区に近づかないよう警告

U.S. warns its nationals to avoid West Bank, Gaza amid annexation talks
Embassy in Jerusalem singles out checkpoints, markets and government facilities as possible targets of potential attacks and asks citizens to maintain vigilance; 'Violence can occur with little or no warning,' says official statement
Itamar Eichner |
Published: 05.28.20 , 18:13
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/rkvJUNTjI

・・・単にイスラエルの西岸併合を認めるだけでなく、同時に巨額の経済支援を注ぎ込むことでパレスチナ経済を浮上させ、皆で幸せになるというのが公式説明なのだが、自分で自分の案が激しい憎悪を生むことがわかっているんですね。悪意ですね。