米欧メディアが、シリア反政府デモ扇動の失敗をようやく認める 9月23日金曜礼拝後

コピペ記事↓のタイトルは、「シリアにおける非暴力の抵抗は失速」。

澄んだ目で観察していれば、7月には勢いが落ちていたことに気付いたはずだ。動画情報

もちろん、シリア政府は、情勢の変化を正確に分析していた。前の記事その2

以下のコピペ記事↓は、デモが衰退した理由を、政府による弾圧強化だけのせいにしているが、それは間違い。最近のデモ動画をいくつか見ればわかるが、デモ隊は、「勉強しない、授業しない」とか、嫌いな人(大統領)について「お前、死ね~」と叫んでいるだけ。中身がない。

米国から中東を任された次世代の大国トルコ情報部と、その子分であるムスリム同胞団の、貧困なアイデアと知性の低さは、痛々しいレベル。

シリア財界からは、きちんとしたビジョンを示してみろと切り捨てられた。アンチ・ビジネスで、皆に迷惑をかけて平気な連中の味方をするシリア人はいない。前の記事

情報戦に最後に参加したNHKは、捏造報道で信用を落とし、情勢の読み違えで恥をかいた形だが、野田総理がオバマに会うときの土産として「NHKでも報じました」と報告したかっただけだから、細かい解釈は別にどうでもいいくらいの感覚なんでしょう。前の記事その2

ジャバルッザーウィイェなんて山の奥だから、猿を山の奥に封印してあるイメージ。彼らに活躍の場はない。何を言っているのやら。この記事は、次の段階として武装闘争を臭わせているが、誰が何のためにやっているのか、自分で白状しているようなもの。これまでの経緯を見て、アサド大統領は意外と嫌われておらず、シリア人は外国の陰謀に乗らないとわからないのかなぁ。



Non-violent resistance losing much steam in Syria
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2011/Sep-23/149456-non-violent-resistance-losing-much-steam-in-syria.ashx
September 23, 2011 01:36 AM
By Sammy Ketz
Agence France Presse

DAMASCUS: As anti-government rallies in Syria appear to lose some of their momentum, protesters may increasingly turn to violence if peaceful action continues to stall, analysts and diplomats believe.

Demonstrators have since mid-March been taking part in a largely non-violent uprising, but the regime of President Bashar Assad has carried out a bloody crackdown that has left more than 2,700 people dead and tens of thousands in prison or unaccounted for, according to the United Nations.

"The protests are continuing in Qamishli (northeast), in Deraa (south), Bou Kamal (east), and the Syrian coast, but they are not as large as before," acknowledged Rami Abdel-Rahman, the head of the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

According to Abdel-Rahman the decline in the size and breadth of the protests is due to widespread arrests, especially among the ranks of the anti-regime movement's leadership, and police searches of local communities.

The current situation is a marked departure from July, when protests peaked with massive rallies in Hama and Deir al-Zour, in the north and east of the country respectively, forcing the Syrian army to intervene.

"Both cities were out of the control of the government, and hundreds of thousands would gather Fridays," Abdel-Rahman noted. "Now, in Deir al-Zour, there are just a few thousand."

According to Thomas Pierret, a lecturer at the University of Edinburgh, Syria's peaceful protest did not have its intended impact because of the regime's willingness to crack down brutally.

"A non-violent strategy works if a significant part of the army is reticent to shoot civilians," he said. "This is not the case in Syria, so one would think the opposition will not bring about the end of the regime peacefully.

"We are now probably in a second phase – a war of attrition. On the one hand, the protests are continuing, albeit on a smaller scale, and on the other hand, in regions such as Homs or Idlib, military deserters and armed demonstrators hold small towns or neighborhoods," he added,

"This is a new test for the unity of the army," said Pierret.

His analysis is a point of view shared by Western diplomats in Damascus.

"The number of demonstrators has diminished, but … if the repression continues, it will become increasingly difficult for proponents of peaceful action to convince the radicals in the protest movement not to take up arms," one diplomat said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The United States, France and Britain have supported sanctions against Syria in the U.N. Security Council, but such efforts have been strongly opposed by Russia and China.

Those on the side of the Syrian regime, meanwhile, have expressed satisfaction that attendance at protests is declining, but caution of the danger presented by "armed gangs."

"Last Friday, there were a maximum of 25,000 or 30,000 protesters in all of Syria, a tenth of how many there were in August," said Khalid al-Ahmad, a Syrian consultant who is close to the regime.

"The movement is not finished, but it is on a downward trajectory because the protesters see that the regime is not going to collapse like a house of cards, unlike in Tunisia or Egypt," he added, referring to popular uprisings there that ousted long-time strongmen.

According to Ahmad, the biggest danger now comes from "4,000 armed Salafists who can be found in Jabal al-Zawiya (in the northwest), which is very difficult to access, and 2,000 others hiding in Homs, where street-level combat would be very costly."

"These rebels only know the language of arms."

According to protest organizers, however, the smaller scale of their rallies is a tactical choice, not one forced upon them.

"The demonstrations have not decreased in their intensity," said Omar Idlibi, spokesman for the Local Coordination Committees, which have been organizing the almost daily protests on the ground.

"But we have decided to limit their scope in the places where the regime violently cracked down, and to redeploy them elsewhere.

"Certainly, the military occupation in all the regions is an obstacle, as are the arrests of tens of thousands of people, but the movement continues, and shows the determination of the Syrian people to achieve their goals."

Idlibi, who forcefully argued for the non-violent nature of the protest movement, nevertheless added that the "delay of the international community in clearly supporting the Syrian revolution could start to slowly lead toward a sharp deviation from the peaceful line."

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