食料価格が高騰しても世界で暴動が広がらない訳
食料価格が最高値を記録しているが、先に世界各地で暴動が発生した2007/08年には、途上国サイドで主食の生産が減少したことが重なった。今回は途上国サイドで主食の確保はできているので、なんとか暴動が広がらずに済んでいる。
という記事なのだが、12月末から首都を含むアルジェリア各地で、失業と食料価格の高騰に抗議する暴動が断続的に発生しているそうだ。先日、チュニジアでガソリンをかぶった青年が、昨日死亡した。
アルジェリアなんて石油・天然ガス輸出でウハウハ儲かっているのだから、国民に飯くらい食わせてやれよと思う。
FAO draws comfort at lack of food riots
By Javier Blas in London and Katrina Manson in Nairobi
Published: January 5 2011 19:14 | Last updated: January 5 2011 19:14
Kenyan girls selling snacks
Kenyan girls sell snacks outside a mosque in Nairobi. Food prices in Kenya have risen slowly but not enough to prompt protests
Kenya's poorest-paid city workers usually flock to illegal streetside stalls to find an affordable breakfast. Partly obscured by smoke rising into the morning air, security guards, drivers and many others cram trestle tables in search of the capital's cheapest food, although it is no longer as cut-price as it was.
Chapatti, a flatbread, costs 15 shillings (7 US cents) apiece, up 50 per cent from last year but still much less than the 80 shillings it costs in legal, rent-paying venues.
"The price is going up slowly but surely, but we can still afford it," says Godfrey Nganga, a 40-year-old driver.
The relatively relaxed attitude of Mr Nganga contrasts with the food crisis of 2007-08, when a spike in agricultural prices triggered food riots in poor countries in Africa, including in Kenya's capital, and elsewhere in Asia and Latin America.
The Food and Agriculture Organisation, the UN body in charge of global food policy, is drawing comfort from the absence of widespread riots, usually the defining element of a food crisis.
The FAO's food price index, a basket tracking the wholesale cost of wheat, corn, rice, oilseeds, dairy products, sugar and meats, has jumped to a record high, surpassing in December the peak of the 2007-08 food crisis.
Yet so far, unrest has been limited. Mozambique witnessed disturbances after the government announced in September a 30 per cent price rise for bread. Food skirmishes have also emerged in Bolivia, where the government is removing subsidies, and India, after a sharp increase in onion prices prompted national outrage.
To an outsider, the relative calm, compared with riots in more than 30 countries three years ago, is striking. But a closer look reveals big differences to the situation then, differences that make clear why the world is not facing a crisis.
At least not yet.
Abdolreza Abbassian, at the FAO in Rome, says the price of rice, one of the two most critical staples for global food security, remains below the peaks of 2007-08, providing breathing space for 3bn people in poor countries. Rice prices hit $1,050 a tonne in May 2008, but now trade at about $550 a tonne.
The cost of wheat, the other staple critical for global food security, is rising, but has not yet surpassed the highs of 2007-08. US wheat prices peaked at about $450 a tonne in early 2008. They are now trading just under $300 a tonne.
The surge in the FAO food index is principally on the back of rising costs for corn, sugar, vegetable oil and meat, which are less important than rice and wheat for food-insecure countries such as Ethiopia, Bangladesh and Haiti.
At the same time, local prices in poor countries have been subdued by good harvests in Africa and Asia. The US government food aid agency, Usaid, says that while the US wheat price increased by nearly 50 per cent from May to November, the average price of wheat across Afghanistan and Pakistan, a critical area for consumption, rose less than 30 per cent.
Similarly, local corn prices in west and east Africa have diverged from the prices of maize from the US and Argentina, the world's largest exporters. While the international export price jumped 45 per cent between May and November, it declined by up to 10 per cent in parts of Africa.
Maximo Torero, at the International Food Policy Research Institute in Washington, says that African countries have reaped so far "good crops" this season.
Three years ago, a large number of poor countries had harvested mediocre crops, forcing governments to tap the global market to bridge the shortfall in domestic production. This pushed up domestic prices and triggered riots.
Food aid and agriculture officials say that as long as African and Asian countries do not need to import produce, the impact of rising global prices will remain limited. But a string of bad crops, perhaps because of poor weather, could change that outlook.
World food prices at fresh high, says UN
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12119539
5 January 2011 Last updated at 19:42 GMT
The FAO's Abdolreza Abbassian warned over low level food reserves
Global food prices rose to a fresh high in December, according to the UN's Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO).
Its Food Price Index went above the previous record of 2008 that saw prices spark riots in several countries.
Soaring sugar, cereal and oil prices had driven the rise, the report said.
The index, which measures monthly price changes for a food basket composed of dairy, meat and sugar, cereals and oilseeds, averaged 214.7 points last month, up from 206 points in November.
It stood at 213.5 points at the high of June 2008 - sparking violent protests in countries including Cameroon, Haiti and Egypt.
There were further riots over food prices in Mozambique in September last year.
However, despite high prices, FAO economist Abdolreza Abbassian said that many of the factors that triggered food riots in 2007 and 2008 - such as weak production in poor countries - were not currently present, reducing the risk of more turmoil.
But he added that "unpredictable weather" meant that grain prices could go much higher, which was "a concern".
'Tight situation'
The current spike in prices is being caused primarily by increases in the cost of sugar and, more importantly, cereals, according to the International Food Policy Research Institute.
Price rises from Nov 2010 to Dec 2010
* Sugar - 6.7%
* Cereals (including wheat, rice, corn) - 6.4%
* Oils - 8%
The price of wheat in particular has risen sharply. This is because wildfires last year in Russia, which accounts for 11% of global exports, resulted in an export ban, the institute's director of markets, trade and institutions, Maximo Torero, told the BBC.
The recent floods in Australia, which also accounts for 11% of global exports, has compounded the problem, he said.
The price of corn has also risen, because of greater support for biofuels in the US and the increased price of oil, which makes biofuels more attractive.
Droughts in Argentina, the world's second biggest exporter of corn behind the US, have also pushed the price up, Mr Torero said.
"The situation is very tight. If we have more natural disasters, we could have a problem," he said.
Australian floods
Overall global food prices have risen by an average of more than 80% in the past 10 years, according to figures from the FAO released last year.
Analysts say that as well as environmental issues, fast-growing world population and the increased demand for biofuels has further put pressure on crop supplies.
"Rising food prices will have an effect almost all over the world but especially in poor countries where food and energy are the major things people spend their money on," said George Magnus, senior economic adviser to UBS.
"There's a risk, I wouldn't say a huge risk, but some risk of higher energy prices and higher food prices being very destabilising in some countries.
"We saw that in 2008 and in Mozambique last year and it's something to watch."
'Particularly worrisome'
The news came amid concerns about inflation in the prices of other key commodities.
Copper prices went into 2011 at record highs - in a rally driven by increased demand from the global economic recovery and that fact that most countries are holding low stockpiles.
And the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday that the current high price of oil would threaten economic recovery in 2011.
Oil import costs for countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development had risen 30% in the past year to $790bn (￡508bn), it said.
Mr Magnus said that if oil returned above $100 a barrel this would be "particularly worrisome".
"It could make central bankers nervous, leave them thinking that inflation was getting out of hand and prompt them to raise interest rates faster than they should. That would damage an already fragile recovery," he said.
"And higher commodity prices could sap the world's ability to consume because more and more of our income will be going on energy and food."
という記事なのだが、12月末から首都を含むアルジェリア各地で、失業と食料価格の高騰に抗議する暴動が断続的に発生しているそうだ。先日、チュニジアでガソリンをかぶった青年が、昨日死亡した。
アルジェリアなんて石油・天然ガス輸出でウハウハ儲かっているのだから、国民に飯くらい食わせてやれよと思う。
FAO draws comfort at lack of food riots
By Javier Blas in London and Katrina Manson in Nairobi
Published: January 5 2011 19:14 | Last updated: January 5 2011 19:14
Kenyan girls selling snacks
Kenyan girls sell snacks outside a mosque in Nairobi. Food prices in Kenya have risen slowly but not enough to prompt protests
Kenya's poorest-paid city workers usually flock to illegal streetside stalls to find an affordable breakfast. Partly obscured by smoke rising into the morning air, security guards, drivers and many others cram trestle tables in search of the capital's cheapest food, although it is no longer as cut-price as it was.
Chapatti, a flatbread, costs 15 shillings (7 US cents) apiece, up 50 per cent from last year but still much less than the 80 shillings it costs in legal, rent-paying venues.
"The price is going up slowly but surely, but we can still afford it," says Godfrey Nganga, a 40-year-old driver.
The relatively relaxed attitude of Mr Nganga contrasts with the food crisis of 2007-08, when a spike in agricultural prices triggered food riots in poor countries in Africa, including in Kenya's capital, and elsewhere in Asia and Latin America.
The Food and Agriculture Organisation, the UN body in charge of global food policy, is drawing comfort from the absence of widespread riots, usually the defining element of a food crisis.
The FAO's food price index, a basket tracking the wholesale cost of wheat, corn, rice, oilseeds, dairy products, sugar and meats, has jumped to a record high, surpassing in December the peak of the 2007-08 food crisis.
Yet so far, unrest has been limited. Mozambique witnessed disturbances after the government announced in September a 30 per cent price rise for bread. Food skirmishes have also emerged in Bolivia, where the government is removing subsidies, and India, after a sharp increase in onion prices prompted national outrage.
To an outsider, the relative calm, compared with riots in more than 30 countries three years ago, is striking. But a closer look reveals big differences to the situation then, differences that make clear why the world is not facing a crisis.
At least not yet.
Abdolreza Abbassian, at the FAO in Rome, says the price of rice, one of the two most critical staples for global food security, remains below the peaks of 2007-08, providing breathing space for 3bn people in poor countries. Rice prices hit $1,050 a tonne in May 2008, but now trade at about $550 a tonne.
The cost of wheat, the other staple critical for global food security, is rising, but has not yet surpassed the highs of 2007-08. US wheat prices peaked at about $450 a tonne in early 2008. They are now trading just under $300 a tonne.
The surge in the FAO food index is principally on the back of rising costs for corn, sugar, vegetable oil and meat, which are less important than rice and wheat for food-insecure countries such as Ethiopia, Bangladesh and Haiti.
At the same time, local prices in poor countries have been subdued by good harvests in Africa and Asia. The US government food aid agency, Usaid, says that while the US wheat price increased by nearly 50 per cent from May to November, the average price of wheat across Afghanistan and Pakistan, a critical area for consumption, rose less than 30 per cent.
Similarly, local corn prices in west and east Africa have diverged from the prices of maize from the US and Argentina, the world's largest exporters. While the international export price jumped 45 per cent between May and November, it declined by up to 10 per cent in parts of Africa.
Maximo Torero, at the International Food Policy Research Institute in Washington, says that African countries have reaped so far "good crops" this season.
Three years ago, a large number of poor countries had harvested mediocre crops, forcing governments to tap the global market to bridge the shortfall in domestic production. This pushed up domestic prices and triggered riots.
Food aid and agriculture officials say that as long as African and Asian countries do not need to import produce, the impact of rising global prices will remain limited. But a string of bad crops, perhaps because of poor weather, could change that outlook.
World food prices at fresh high, says UN
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12119539
5 January 2011 Last updated at 19:42 GMT
The FAO's Abdolreza Abbassian warned over low level food reserves
Global food prices rose to a fresh high in December, according to the UN's Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO).
Its Food Price Index went above the previous record of 2008 that saw prices spark riots in several countries.
Soaring sugar, cereal and oil prices had driven the rise, the report said.
The index, which measures monthly price changes for a food basket composed of dairy, meat and sugar, cereals and oilseeds, averaged 214.7 points last month, up from 206 points in November.
It stood at 213.5 points at the high of June 2008 - sparking violent protests in countries including Cameroon, Haiti and Egypt.
There were further riots over food prices in Mozambique in September last year.
However, despite high prices, FAO economist Abdolreza Abbassian said that many of the factors that triggered food riots in 2007 and 2008 - such as weak production in poor countries - were not currently present, reducing the risk of more turmoil.
But he added that "unpredictable weather" meant that grain prices could go much higher, which was "a concern".
'Tight situation'
The current spike in prices is being caused primarily by increases in the cost of sugar and, more importantly, cereals, according to the International Food Policy Research Institute.
Price rises from Nov 2010 to Dec 2010
* Sugar - 6.7%
* Cereals (including wheat, rice, corn) - 6.4%
* Oils - 8%
The price of wheat in particular has risen sharply. This is because wildfires last year in Russia, which accounts for 11% of global exports, resulted in an export ban, the institute's director of markets, trade and institutions, Maximo Torero, told the BBC.
The recent floods in Australia, which also accounts for 11% of global exports, has compounded the problem, he said.
The price of corn has also risen, because of greater support for biofuels in the US and the increased price of oil, which makes biofuels more attractive.
Droughts in Argentina, the world's second biggest exporter of corn behind the US, have also pushed the price up, Mr Torero said.
"The situation is very tight. If we have more natural disasters, we could have a problem," he said.
Australian floods
Overall global food prices have risen by an average of more than 80% in the past 10 years, according to figures from the FAO released last year.
Analysts say that as well as environmental issues, fast-growing world population and the increased demand for biofuels has further put pressure on crop supplies.
"Rising food prices will have an effect almost all over the world but especially in poor countries where food and energy are the major things people spend their money on," said George Magnus, senior economic adviser to UBS.
"There's a risk, I wouldn't say a huge risk, but some risk of higher energy prices and higher food prices being very destabilising in some countries.
"We saw that in 2008 and in Mozambique last year and it's something to watch."
'Particularly worrisome'
The news came amid concerns about inflation in the prices of other key commodities.
Copper prices went into 2011 at record highs - in a rally driven by increased demand from the global economic recovery and that fact that most countries are holding low stockpiles.
And the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday that the current high price of oil would threaten economic recovery in 2011.
Oil import costs for countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development had risen 30% in the past year to $790bn (￡508bn), it said.
Mr Magnus said that if oil returned above $100 a barrel this would be "particularly worrisome".
"It could make central bankers nervous, leave them thinking that inflation was getting out of hand and prompt them to raise interest rates faster than they should. That would damage an already fragile recovery," he said.
"And higher commodity prices could sap the world's ability to consume because more and more of our income will be going on energy and food."
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